Opportunities for India in Ageing
Kaushik Pandya
2cb4 GLOBAL HEALTH AND ITS IMPACT ON INDIAN HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY PROJECT & RESEARCH BY :
KAUSHIK. V. PANDYA
CELL: +91 9825414144
Email: kaushik_pandya@hotmail.com POPULATION IMPLOSION AND ITS IMPACT ON HEALTHCARE The Old World
Percent of Population 65 and Above
(Projected)
Country 2000 2025
Algeria 4.0 7.1
Brazil 5 3 11.3
China 7.0 13.5
Ethiopia 2.8 2.7
India 4.6 7.8
Iraq 3.1 4.3
Saudi Arabia 2.6 5.6
South Africa 4.8 9.6
Germany 16.2 23.1
Japan 17.0 27.6
Russia 12.6 18.5
Spain 16.9 23.5
United States 12.6 18.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Censes, International Data Base
AGEING GLOBAL POPULATION & FALLING FERTILITY RATES
•Mainland China Facing Aging Population Problem. Due to its one-child policy, China's number of elderly people may triple from 130 million to 400 million over the next five years, Currently one young person in mainland China supports an average of four elderly people.
•All five East Asian tigers--Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan--have reported sub replacement fertility levels
•Experts predict that Italy's population will shrink 28 percent to 41 million by 2050
•The immediate result of below replacement fertility is population aging. As the older population grows to retirement age, they must rely on rapidly expanding social security and medical systems.
•Europe: 35 nations are dying in both Eastern and Western Europe.
•20 European countries now fill more coffins than cradles.
•Europe's population is expected to decrease from 728 million now to 658 million by 2050, due to declining birth rates. Europe registers the world's lowest growth rate at 0.03 percent. In the region of Eastern Europe, population growth is -0.2 percent
•Germany could easily lose the equivalent of the current population of what was once East Germany over the next half-century. . The home healthcare market in Germany is the third largest in the world and the largest in Europe. It was valued at euro 14.62 billion in 2003.
•Russia's population is already contracting by three quarters of a million a year.
•Japan: Incentives Offered To Reverse Falling Birthrate. The average birthrate for a Japanese woman was just 1.38 in 1998, Japan's record low and among the lowest in the world.
•50 Years From Now, It'll Be a Grey India. By 2051, only 19% of the country's population would be up to the age of 14 years. Currently this group constitutes almost 38% of the population. The median age will rise by 17 years from 21 years now to 38 years in 2051. Couples are opting for one child, or at the most two - and with advancement in health services, about 15% of the population will be over the age of 65 by 2051. The total fertility rate - number of children per woman) in India would is expected to come down to 2.52 between 2011 and 2016, and is expected to reach 2.1 in 2026.
•Canadians are becoming an endangered species, with the Canadian fertility rate at an all-time low. Canada's fertility rate stands at an all-time low of 1.5 children per woman, far below the 2.1 stand-still replacement rate, with an overall population growth of just 4.3 per cent.
•Mexico fertility rates have dropped so dramatically, the country is now ageing five times faster than the US.
•Fertility rates are falling faster in the Middle East than anywhere else on earth, and as a result, the region's population is ageing at an unprecedented rate.
•Would a depopulating planet be a planet of wheelchairs--of increasingly infirm and brittle senior citizens with correspondingly escalating demands for medical services and care from the rest of society?

Uninsured America
•45 Million Uninsured Americans
•How large is 45 million?
45 million uninsured Americans is more than...

• All Americans age 65 and older (35.9 million).

•12 million more than the population of Canada (32.2 million).
•Nearly five times more than the number of Americans living with cancer.
There are...
• Nearly 150 uninsured Americans for each physician in America
• Nearly 7,500 uninsured Americans for each hospital in America
• Over 84,000 uninsured Americans for each Member of Congress
•People without insurance are less likely to seek health care when needed
•97 percent said uninsured patients are having a more difficult time getting access to primary care and therefore are coming first to emergency departments.
•94 percent said uninsured patients often have medical conditions that have persisted or worsened because of a lack of early intervention or preventive care.
•71 percent said uninsured patients tend to be sicker and have more serious medical conditions than patients with health coverage.
•95 percent said uninsured patients are less likely to receive recommended health screening services.
•93 percent said uninsured patients lack regular access to medications needed to manage conditions like hypertension or diabetes.
•93 percent said it is more difficult arranging or securing follow-up care for an uninsured patient with a serious medical problem than for a patient with health coverage.

•Hospitals have become dangerous places. A recent article in Consumer Reports, How safe is your hospital? reports on the increase in medication errors, hospital acquired illnesses and inadequate administration of pain relief medication.
•Almost 1 million (902,000) persons between the ages of 62 and 64 were uninsured.

•In the US, the number of persons aged 60 years or older is estimated to be 60 million.
The Medicare prescription drug bill needs to be completely overhauled.


•Every day in the United States another 6,000 people reach the age of 65.
•In the US for example, the dramatic increases in obesity and sedentary lifestyles are already causing disability rates to rise among the population 59 and younger. Researchers say that this trend will cause a 10 to 20 per cent increase in the demand for nursing homes over what would otherwise occur from mere population ageing, and a 10 to 15 per cent increase in Medicare expenditures on top of the program's already exploding costs. With shortages of service industry workers and health care personnel to care for older people
•You want security in your old age? Then you don't put dollars into Social Security – you put in babies.
•Accordingly, in another 20 years, the US will be no more able to afford the role of world policeman than Europe or Japan can today. Nor will China be able to assume the job, since it will soon suffer from the kind of hyper-ageing that Japan is already experiencing.
•Demand for inpatient services, due in part to an aging population, will increase and stimulate building and expansion in some markets. A greater demand for chronic care capabilities may result in long-term acute care units and more skilled nursing, adult day care, and assisted living options. Hospitals will increasingly offer premier and niche services and give patients more control of their room environment. They will face recruitment and retention problems and struggle with their ability to embrace new technology.
•Healthcare costs are projected to double by 2007.New and better diagnostic and therapeutic interventions were developed. And everyone demanded access to the best regardless of cost.

The demand for beds in U.S. hospitals is projected to increase by as much as 46% in the next 25 years, according to a new study published by Solucient. This increase of an additional 238,000 beds is expected to result from long-term demographic shifts in the U.S. population, which could drive up demand for inpatient acute care through 2027. The new long-term forecasts also show that total acute care admissions are projected to increase by 13 million cases during that same time frame—a 41% increase from the current number of national admissions. Such forecasts come at a time when many acute care hospitals nationwide are experiencing increases in hospitalizations, resulting in capacity constraints, and an unprecedented boom in hospital construction and expansion projects. “To achieve long-term success, capital-intensive projects must not only relieve current capacity issues in the market,” says Paul Presken, “but also anticipate future demand for care over the next five to 25 years.” Several demographic factors are likely to contribute to the 25-year growth in inpatient care, including the aging of the baby boom generation, increasing life expectancy, rising fertility rates, and continued immigration. These factors, however, will not affect each market equally.
JCI MANTRA
Health care should be safe, effective, patient-centered, timely, efficient, and equitableWHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR INDIA IN THE GLOBAL HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY?
STRENGTHS
•POTENTIAL TO EARN Rs 1000 CR PER ANNUM IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE, GROWING AT 25% PER ANNUM.
•POTENTIAL TO EARN ATLEAST THE SAME BY TOURISM AND TRANSPORT INDUSTRY.
•FOREIGN TOURISTS ACCUSTOMED WITH INDIAN DOCTORS IN THE US & UK.
•LARGE CONCENTRATION OF NRI,S & NRG,S IN AMERICA & UK MAKES IT EASIER FOR INDIA TO PROMOTE QUALITY HEALTHCARE.
•LEADING EDGE TECHNOLOGY AT MOST CORPORATE HOSPITALS IN INDIA.
•EXCELLENT I.T SUPPORT FOR MAINTAINING ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.
•INTERNATIONAL ACCREDITATION (JCI) BY MANY CORPORATE HOSPITALS.
•Health care professionals have credentials from some of the India's leading medical schools and teaching centers.
•MEDIUM OF SPOKEN ENGLISH AND MEDICAL TERMINOLOGY WIDELY ACCEPTED BY FOREIGNERS.
•POSITIVE APPROACH BY GOVT.TO REMOVE HURDLES RELATING TO TRANSPORT, INFRASTRUCTURE, IMMIGRATION, AND SECURITY.
•CONTINUOUS PRESSURE ON HEALTHCARE FACILITIES IN MAJOR COUNTRIES IN EUROPE AND AMERICA DUE TO AGEING.
•UNPRECEDENTED GROWTH IN HEALTHCARE COSTS IN EUROPE AND AMERICA.
•UNAFFORDABLE HEALTH INSURANCE PREMIUMS.
•TREMENDOUS SHORTAGE OF DOCTORS, NURSES AND PARA-MEDICAL STAFF.
•LESS THAN 1% OF INDIAN POPULATION COVERED UNDER MEDICLAIM INSURANCE.
WHAT HAPPENS EVEN IF THERE IS A POPULATION EXPLOSION IN EUROPE AND AMERICA? HEALTHCARE FACILITIES ARE ALREADY UNDER PRESSURE AND HEALTHCARE COSTS ARE GOING THROUGH THE ROOF !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PROJECT & RESEARCH BY :
KAUSHIK V PANDYA
CELL: +91 9825414144
Email: kaushik_pandya@hotmail.com

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